EVs At 91.3% Share In Norway – Shrinking Auto Market

October noticed plugin EVs at 91.3% share in Norway, up from 86.4% yr on yr. Full electrics took over 84% of the market. General auto quantity was 8,925 models, down 29% yr on yr. Norway’s greatest promoting automobile in October was the Tesla Mannequin Y.

October noticed mixed EVs at 91.3% share in Norway, comprising 84.2% full electrics (BEVs), and seven.1% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These evaluate with YoY figures of 86.4%, 77.5%, and 9.0%, respectively. BEVs have gained virtually one other 7% of the market over the previous yr, and PHEVs misplaced share, although not as quickly as the opposite non-BEV powertrains.

By way of volumes, in opposition to the broader market drop of 29%, BEVs had been some 23% down YoY, to 7,516 models. PHEVs had been down by 44%, to 635 models.

HEVs had been halved to 489 models, diesel was at simply 43% of YoY quantity (198 models), and petrol, at simply 87 models, was all the way down to beneath a 3rd of its October 2022 quantity. That is the second consecutive month the place petrol-only powertrains have seen beneath 100 gross sales — and beneath 1% market share — and they’re going to proceed to fade out from right here.

12 months thus far cumulative share for plugins presently stands at 90.5%, with 83.5% BEVs. Count on these to hit 91% and 84% for full yr 2023. In each instances, this will probably be round 4% to five% greater than 2022’s share. We’re definitely across the prime of the S-curve, although Norway’s present financial outlook is placing extra strain on the curve in the intervening time.

Bestsellers

Albeit with volumes acceptable for a low-ebb logistics month, the Tesla Mannequin Y as soon as once more took the general bestseller spot in October, with 647 models. In shut competitors for second place had been the Toyota BZ4X, and Skoda Enyaq.

Comparatively robust performers in October had been the Toyota BZ4X, Subaru Solterra, and the Hyundai Kona. Comparatively weak performers included the 2 Teslas, the VW ID.4, Volvo XC40, Audi Q8 e-tron, and BMW i4. As regular, most of those month-to-month variations are all the way down to shifting logistics decisions of the producers, slightly than dramatic modifications in shopper desire.

Just a few new fashions made Norwegian debuts this previous month. The brand new Peugeot e-308 made its first look, although with only a single unit for now. The touring-wagon variant of the e-308 could entice some curiosity in Norway, with valuable few different BEV choices on this format.

One other newcomer was the Nio EL6, a mid-large SUV (4,854 mm), with slick styling and excessive efficiency. The worth begins from 595,000 krona (€50,000) with battery owned (much less if battery is leased), for the entry 70.5 kWh variant (WLTP 406 km). Dearer and longer vary variants are additionally accessible. The EL6 noticed an preliminary 9 models in October.

The Xpeng G9, which debuted in September with 12 models, stepped as much as a robust 78 models in October. This can be a shut competitor to the Nio EL6 in measurement, format, and efficiency, however begins at a fair lower cost of 536,275 krona (€45,000).

Let’s now flip to the three month efficiency:

The Tesla Mannequin Y nonetheless has a large lead in Norway, with extra gross sales over the trailing quarter than the following three runners up mixed. The Mannequin Y’s relative dominance over friends is roughly according to the state of affairs 3 months prior. Its yr thus far efficiency is even stronger, near equalling the following 5 fashions mixed.

The closest runners up over the newest three months are the Skoda Enyaq, Toyota BZ4X, and Volkswagen ID.4. The Toyota has climbed strongly over the interval, seeing quantity greater than double, whereas the ID.4 has misplaced greater than half its prior quantity.

One other notable efficiency got here from the Mercedes EQE, which just about doubled its quantity over the prior interval, and entered the highest 20 for the primary time.

There’s no fast prospect of newer fashions breaking into the highest 20 within the coming couple of months, however let’s see if autos just like the Jeep Avenger, Fisker Ocean, and Xpeng G9 can construct on early acceptance to climb the Norwegian ranks over the medium time period.

I’m planning a devoted article later this month giving an replace on the fleet transition.

Outlook

Norway’s auto market quantity is clearly within the doldrums, and the OFV is presently estimating a 25% quantity drop in full yr 2023. They are saying that “elevated rates of interest and powerful inflation sting strongly for a lot of. This has additionally been evident within the new automotive marketplace for a number of months. Many at the moment are very cautious about prioritising new automotive purchases.” (OFV, machine translation).

Rates of interest are presently 4.25% and have climbed repeatedly for the previous two years. Headline inflation has cooled over current months, however core inflation charges stay excessive at 5.7% in September, from 6.3% in August. Likewise, core shopper costs are nonetheless very excessive. Norway’s GDP progress fell to zero in July, from + 0.3% in April.

This discount in shopper confidence will clearly decelerate the transition of Norway’s fleet over to EVs. As regular, those that are nonetheless shopping for new automobiles nonetheless more and more want BEVs over all different powertrains, however it could be some time earlier than volumes return to the highs seen over the previous couple of years.

What are your ideas on Norway’s EV transition? Please leap in to the feedback part beneath to hitch the dialogue.