CheggMate

March 4, 2025

6

The anticipated AIO-pocalypse hasn’t occurred, no less than not within the type we anticipated.

As an alternative of a meteor impression, it seems extra like local weather change: slowly elevating temperatures that trigger pure disasters. Chegg is among the first victims.

Chegg is an ed-tech firm that provides college students homework assist, textbook leases, on-line tutoring, and profession assets. Based in 2005. IPO in 2013.

In 2024, it reported 6.6 million paying subscribers, and its income is down -14% YoY. The offender: AI.

The massive query I reply on this article is whether or not Chegg is an outlier (spoiler: it’s not) or the primary of many. Extra corporations are bleeding. And a few direct rivals to Chegg are surprisingly thriving.

It’s best to learn this Memo if you wish to perceive:

1. The nuance behind Chegg’s decline.
2. Who else is impacted by AI.
3. Learn how to inform in the event you’re in danger.

Learn how to construct up immunity in opposition to AI.

Picture Credit score: Lyna ™

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AI Overviews Are Not The (Solely) Downside

Chegg filed a lawsuit in opposition to Google for abusing its monopoly place in Search to power corporations to offer content material that it repurposes for AI solutions or Featured Snippets.¹

The accusation has legs. Displaying solutions within the search outcomes immediately competes with Chegg’s enterprise mannequin.

Chegg claims (rightfully) it can not decide out of them with out reducing off very important natural site visitors and calls Search a “Hobson’s Selection”: you both block Google and lose all natural site visitors or don’t, and Google takes your content material to provide solutions within the search outcomes.

Up up to now, I agree.

What we’re witnessing is the previous ecosystem of Search falling aside. The generational deal was that web sites would create good content material and permit Google to crawl it.

In return, Google sends them web sites and exhibits adverts to searchers. Now that clicking on web sites is redundant in some instances, this deal is falling aside.

In my meta evaluation of AI Overviews, I confirmed how AI Overviews cut back click-through charges, however additionally they present up a lot much less typically and extra for informational queries than after they first began.

Skeptical

However this isn’t the entire puzzle of Chegg’s downside. Months earlier than the lawsuit, Chegg’s CEO mentioned AI, not AI Overviews, is consuming into subscriber progress (as I discussed in my Q1 Marketplaces Deep Dive):

“Rosensweig mentioned on a Could earnings name that ChatGPT had begun consuming into subscriber progress. Chegg pulled monetary forecasts for the remainder of the 12 months, and its inventory dropped 48% in a day.”²

The article goes on:

“However inside months, Chegg’s inner knowledge confirmed college students had been more and more turning to ChatGPT as a learning help. Staff discovered a few of the solutions supplied by GPT-4, the expertise behind ChatGPT, scored greater on inner evaluations than solutions from Chegg’s human specialists.”

The issue goes past AI Overviews. College students around the globe are utilizing AI as an alternative of net platforms. And you may see it within the numbers as properly.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

Once you take a look at how a lot estimated site visitors Chegg obtained from search outcomes exhibiting AI Overviews, you discover it was solely ~20% in December 2024, at its peak, and 15% in January 2025. Painful, however not sufficient to tank an organization.

In line with Semrush, Chegg’s natural site visitors really elevated after Could 2024, when AIOs launched, and solely began tanking in October 2024.

In line with Similarweb, complete site visitors declined earlier than ChatGPT launched in November 2022.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

Declining model search quantity is an indication of shrinking model consciousness, product/market-fit and consumer retention.

The truth that model search quantity has been shrinking since 2020 and searches for cancellations have peaked earlier than AI entered the mainstream makes me imagine that the model already had points.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

Chegg’s engagement metrics declined over the past 3 years, which isn’t good for search engine optimization and never good for the enterprise.

Backside Line

Chegg struggled earlier than AI. AI simply accelerated the decline.

So, why doesn’t Chegg sue OpenAI & Co as properly? Possibly, as a result of AI Overviews and their impression are simpler to measure.

Or, possibly as a result of Chegg’s case might construct on the lawsuit DoJ vs. Google, which already dominated Google a monopoly. The timing would match, because the treatments are popping out in August.

Chegg might no less than block LLM crawlers of their robots.txt.

Don’t get me incorrect – Chegg’s lawsuit has a powerful level. However I additionally see it as a narrative for traders: Chegg desires to sign that it must take the corporate non-public or promote (proper name) due to a structural change to its enterprise mannequin that it’s not chargeable for. The truth that the announcement was made throughout an earnings name helps that principle.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

Symbolic: AI homework helper outranks Chegg for “homework assist,” considered one of its most vital key phrases.

Who Else Is Impacted By AI

Chegg is a harbinger. I checked out different ed-tech websites that lean closely on search engine optimization and located that the majority of them noticed important site visitors losses since ChatGPT got here out:

CourseHero.
Brainly.
Studocu.
Quizlet.
Numerade.
Wyzant.
Khan Academy.
Codepen.
Examine.com.
W3schools.
Stackoverflow.

The site visitors knowledge is supported by analysis exhibiting that college students underwent important conduct adjustments (first two quotes from the WSJ article linked above):

“A survey of school college students by funding financial institution Needham discovered 30% supposed to make use of Chegg this semester, down from 38% within the spring, and 62% deliberate to make use of ChatGPT, up from 43%.”

“Researchers on the College of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign performed a examine within the spring final 12 months to see how ChatGPT had influenced dishonest in an introductory programming course. They discovered college students had overwhelmingly moved to ChatGPT from what the researchers referred to as “plagiarism hubs” comparable to Chegg.”

“A survey of 1,000 college students – each home and worldwide – discovered there had been an “explosive enhance” in the usage of genAI up to now 12 months. Nearly 9 out of 10 (88%) within the 2025 ballot mentioned they used instruments comparable to ChatGPT for his or her assessments, up from 53% final 12 months.”³

ChatGPT & Co. destroy the worth of on-line tutoring and examine instruments.

Purple Flags

Chegg and the opposite affected websites present what crimson flags to be careful for:

> 80% natural site visitors.
Younger goal audiences.
Info websites, particularly marketplaces.

The businesses that should be most cautious are overexposed to search engine optimization, provide info as a product, and promote to younger individuals.

Different industries that match the invoice and could possibly be subsequent on the listing: Gig economic system, On-line Q&A, Quotes, lexica, encyclopedias, dictionaries.

Over 80% of Chegg’s site visitors comes from search engine optimization (Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig)

How To Construct AI Immunity Cells

Not each ed-tech firm is within the crimson. Scribd, Coursera, Udemy, Pearson.

Pearson is very fascinating as a result of it’s the UK equal of Chegg. Regardless that income is down -3%, and its CEO acknowledged “digital studying tendencies” (a.ok.a. AI) as a problem, site visitors is flourishing.

Why? As a result of it’s higher diversified: 65% of site visitors comes direct, 18% from natural. It doesn’t must be that little.

Every firm I listed originally of the paragraph is both much less reliant on search engine optimization site visitors or presents content material that’s onerous to repeat (e.g., programs).

Turning round structural declines, the place consumer conduct and the market considerably shift, is difficult. Generally, inconceivable. I’ve realized my very own justifiable share of classes when Shopify went via the COVID hangover.

So, what can Chegg do besides discover a time machine and return 10 years to repair its overexposure on search engine optimization?

First, taking the corporate non-public to show it round is an effective first step. The stress of quarterly outcomes makes a powerful pivot inconceivable.

Second, Chegg is already engaged on two good pivots:⁴

Get away from content material that’s straightforward for Google to repeat/synthesize and give attention to interactive instruments and expertise. The corporate already presents instruments like a quotation supervisor or a plagiarism checker, but it surely might do much more right here.
Discover associated market. Chegg launched Busuu, a language studying service, and Chegg Abilities, a pilot program to coach college students in business-relevant expertise and join them straight to companies. However can it compete with Duolingo and Babbel? And, are new markets fruitful sufficient?

I’m rooting for Chegg. I would like it to be a turnaround story. Godspeed.

¹Supply, Supply

²How ChatGPT Introduced Down an On-line Schooling Large

³UK universities warned to ‘stress-test’ assessments as 92% of scholars use AI

⁴Chegg Reviews 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Yr Monetary Outcomes

Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal