Why Is Google Shedding Market Share In The EU?

Most entrepreneurs don’t understand that Google has been shedding search market share in EU international locations.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

The drop in market share comes at a time when Google’s enterprise is below siege:

• The DoJ advisable separating Google from Chrome and Android amid a lawsuit towards Alphabet. (I summarized the lawsuit and potential outcomes in Monopoly.)
• The Justice Division runs a separate lawsuit towards Google’s promoting enterprise.
• Canada simply sued Google over anti-competitive practices in on-line adverts.
• ChatGPT, Perplexity & Co are rising thoughts and market share. (I coated the meteoric rise of ChatGPT in ChatGPT Search.)
• Google faces heavy regulation within the EU from the DMA (Digital Advertising and marketing Act), which I wrote about in 2 Internets.

So, the query is two-fold: How a lot does the drop in market share matter, and what’s the driver?

The quick reply is that the drop issues greater than Alphabet would possibly prefer to admit.

It provides oxygen to opponents and weakens the physique within the combat towards exterior brokers. Google’s income continues to be robust, however promoting market share is declining.

A mixture of regulation, opponents, and adverse sentiment towards Google appear chargeable for the drop.

The implication is that entrepreneurs more and more want to trace and optimize for extra serps, however a extra fragmented enjoying area is also a chance for extra referral visitors from serps to web sites.

What Is Going On With Google?

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

Google’s market share during the last 10 years dipped by -5.6 pp (share factors) in France and -3.3 pp in Germany.

StatCounter has by no means recorded such a low share since measuring information in January 2009.

France and Germany usually are not the one ones. Most EU international locations noticed Google’s market share drip within the final 5 years (cell):

• Austria: -4.1 pp.
• Poland: -3.1 pp.
• Switzerland: -2.3 pp.
• Netherlands: -2.1 pp.
• Denmark: -1.5 pp.

Zooming additional in additionally doesn’t change issues. Google market share during the last 12 months (cell):

• France: -4.6 pp.
• Austria: -3.2 pp.
• Poland: -2.4 pp.
• Germany: -2.1 pp.
• Switzerland: -1.3 pp.
• Netherlands: -1.0 pp.
• Denmark: -1.0 pp.

What’s occurring? The image turns into clearer after we take a look at when the pattern adjustments. There are two inflection factors: November 2018 and April 2024.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

The info reveals a shift away from Google beginning round April, a month after Android and Apple launched selection screens for browsers and serps.

In different phrases, Google can not be the default search engine on cell and desktop units. We’re beginning to see the outcomes.

Nonetheless, not all international locations see a dip. Why?

Why Are Some International locations Flat?

Google’s market share isn’t down in each EU nation, e.g.:

• Portugal.
• Spain.
• Italy.
• Eire.

How come? These international locations are a part of Europe, and customers see a selection display.

The reply is units. The international locations listed above misplaced market share on desktop however not cell.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

This occurs all over the place within the EU. Over the past 5 years, Google misplaced -2.1% market share on cell in comparison with -10% on desktop within the EU.

Why?

An enormous a part of the reason being the unique distribution settlement with Apple.

Home windows is the dominant desktop working system, with +75% within the EU, largely due to its domination in company computing. MacOS has solely 15.1%.

Whereas Android (Google’s working system) additionally has the bulk market share on cell with 66.5%, Apple’s iOS has 33%.

And since Google is the default search engine on Apple units by paying a $20 billion payment, its place is extra stable within the EU on cell – till the DMA pressured selection screens in March.

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

However what about international locations that present a decline in Google’s market share earlier than March? Means earlier than!

Why Does The Dip Begin Earlier In Some International locations?

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

Google misplaced market share in international locations like Germany and Portugal as early as November 2018. So, there have to be one thing else occurring in addition to selection screens and device-specific dynamics.

Two issues occurred in 2018: First, GDPR, the European information safety legislation, got here into impact in Could 2018. Second, the EU fined Alphabet €4.34 billion for antitrust violations associated to Android’s market dominance.

Each occasions didn’t straight lower Google’s market share however set off a interval of Google distrust that gave house to smaller opponents like DuckDuckGo and Bing.

Europeans are way more privacy-sensitive, which suggests regulatory fines and privateness legal guidelines affect shopper conduct way more than the U.S.

For instance, the European privateness search engine StartPage will get 56% of searches from the EU and 21% from the U.S.

Customers go to Google much less due to privateness considerations. France declared to not use Google as a default search engine for some ministries in November 2018.

Alternative screens and public notion are the most important drivers behind Google’s decline. Google sends much less referral visitors to web sites. So, what’s the impact?

Who Wins What Google Loses?

Picture Credit score: Kevin Indig

The largest winner of Google’s decline is Bing. The ever-second search engine is the most important beneficiary of Google’s decline.

It’s very potential that ChatGPT and its shut affiliation with Microsoft gave its search engine a much bigger enhance in Europe than initially assumed, however Bing can also be the second selection in cons’ minds.

Now, these numbers are nonetheless peanuts, and serps like DuckDuckGo, Ecosia, and QWANT license search outcomes from Bing and Google. So, you possibly can say that Google and Bing win, in spite of everything.

Nonetheless, Ecosia and QWANT are engaged on a joint internet index to turn out to be unbiased from different serps.

How for much longer till DuckDuckGo and others announce their very own index as nicely? When the alpha will get weaker, the smaller animals scent the chance.

Regardless of the decline in market share, Google’s search income continues to be rising impressively quick at its scale. Why?

1. Market share doesn’t need to correlate with search quantity or monetizable queries.
2. There are extra cell than desktop searches, and cell searches drop to a smaller diploma.
3. Google nonetheless dominates in different markets – the EU may not be sufficient to place a dent into Google’s income that the corporate couldn’t compensate.
4. Google has been extra aggressive in search monetization than the drop in market share.

Relative advert income development, which is predicted to fall under 50% subsequent yr, could possibly be a greater indicator than absolute development.

I additionally wish to level out a caveat within the information: StatCounter gathers information by measuring referral visitors on 1.5 million websites. There’s a likelihood that Google sending out much less visitors to web sites and retaining it to themselves impacts the numbers.

What Are The Implications?

Google’s dropping market share within the EU, mixed with potential antitrust treatments (like a pressured finish to the distribution settlement with Apple) and extra competitors, will probably fragment Search additional.

In different phrases, we would optimize for extra serps (once more). Most of them would possibly operate equally in rating however would possibly want website homeowners to take devoted indexing actions, corresponding to integrating with Bing’s IndexNOW.

We’ve already dusted off our Bing Webmaster Instruments when it turned out ChatGPT is utilizing Bing outcomes for its search characteristic. What’s subsequent? Perplexity webmaster instruments? Boosted by rising market share, website positioning professionals ought to pay extra consideration to Bing.

Different serps don’t have webmaster instruments but – to my shock. What higher method to foster a relationship with website homeowners than a portal? However with more and more unbiased indices, that might turn out to be a actuality quickly.

Sarcastically, the monopoly lawsuit towards Google comes simply as the corporate will get extra competitors. A 1% market share of a large like Alphabet can create a unicorn with $1.75 billion in ARR.

Browsers play a vital function within the search engine wars. The DoJ is pushing for Chrome to divest from Google, and OpenAI is working by itself browser.

France is ditching Google to reclaim its on-line independence

OpenAI Considers Taking over Google With Browser

Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal